Ms Takaichi is no anti-establishment firebrand. She is a long-serving, Margaret Thatcher-admiring parliamentarian
If Japanese politics had a soundtrack, it would long have been quiet, calm ambient music. But with the selection of Takaichi Sanae as leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on October 4th, Japan has entered a heavy-metal phase. Ms Takaichi, a one-time drummer in a heavy-metal band, is poised to become prime minister next week. She will be the first woman to lead modern Japan. Brash, nationalistic and polarising, Ms Takaichi fits the trend of politics globally.
To fend off such forces Ms Takaichi proposes a harder-edged version of the politics of her mentor, Abe Shinzo, a prime minister who was murdered in 2022. The question is whether she will be more like Abe in his short, unsuccessful first term, when he was overly ideological, or more like Abe in his second term, when he was a deft, pragmatic political operator.
Ms Takaichi’s ascent brings several big risks. Her economic policy is essentially Abenomics, with its three arrows of fiscal expansionism, monetary accommodation and structural reform. Yet Abenomics was designed for a country struggling with deflation;
Japan now faces inflation persistently above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. Ms Takaichi’s proposals would create more inflationary pressure, further strain the budget and undermine the yen. That might please equity investors, who are happy to see fiscal stimulus and a weaker yen. But it will rattle bond markets, and without bold structural reform, it will not boost Japan’s potential growth rate.
On the international stage, Ms Takaichi will have to play a delicate polyrhythm. She shares Abe’s revisionist views on wartime history and is a regular visitor to the Yasukuni Shrine, where the souls of Japan’s war dead, including war criminals, are honoured. That appeals to Japan’s nationalist right; but if she is not careful she could upend the recent rapprochement with South Korea and roil relations with China. With America she will resent the coercive $550bn tariff and investment deal that her predecessor struck with Donald Trump, but she cannot afford to provoke the ire of Japan’s security provider by obstructing it much.
At home, Ms Takaichi is a divisive culture warrior. She opposes allowing married couples to keep separate surnames—a bellwether issue for feminists. She has played to growing fears around foreigners. That might bring some conservative voters back to the LDP fold in the short term, but in the long term stoking populism is risky. It could end, like many a heavy-metal concert, in flames.
Yet that is not inevitable. Ms Takaichi represents refreshing change in many respects. Unlike the hereditary politicians who dominate Japan’s political scene, she is self-made. She is a studious policy wonk. Her plain-speaking style endears her to voters. Though not a feminist, she is breaking an important glass ceiling—the last women to rule Japan lived more than 1,000 years ago.
And structural forces ought to constrain the new prime minister. China’s growing assertiveness and North Korea’s new alliance with Russia mean Japan does not have the luxury of squabbling with South Korea over the past. The LDP leads a minority government and will need to expand the coalition or work with the opposition to make policy. To last on this lofty stage, Ms Takaichi will need to learn how to blend in with the band.
